Mortality Rates Estimation of Active insured members of Social Insurance Fund of Farmers, Villagers and Tribes in 2016

Demographic rates, such as mortality rates, have an important role in the calculations and policymaking of insurance (social and commercial) and funds. Since TD (88-90) Mortality Table, which is prescribed by the Central Insurance of Iran and overestimates the mortality rates,  is still used in actuarial calculations in Iran, it is important and useful to construct a life table that provides an accurate estimation of the mortality of the Iranian population. Due to the importance of this issue, the purpose of this paper is to estimate the mortality rates of insured of the Social Funds of Farmers, Villagers and Tribes in 2016, which actually is a sub-population of 1.5 million people in Iran.

In this paper in order to minimize the effect of data’s few-counting of death, the target population has been limited to active insured members in the year 2016. For each age x, the raw mortality rate is obtained by dividing the number of x-year dead by the x-year exposures. The smoothing of the raw rates is done by the Makeham model with A = 0.0001, B = 0.0001521 and c = 1.073 parameters which have been estimated by the least-squares error method.

The mortality rates for active insured male members of the fund for ages between 30 and 80 have been estimated. The resulting rates for ages between 30 and 71 are higher than rates which obtained by insured people of the Social Security Organization and lower than rates of TD (88-90). The fund rates in comparison with the rates presented by the United Nations, are higher up to age 60 and lower at age 60 up to age 71.

 The results and comparisons show that the estimated rates for the fund are largely reasonable and reliable. According to the comparisons, it can also be said that the estimated rates for the fund and the rates which were presented by the United Nations are the closest among the rates presented by the four sources listed.