Probability of Occurrence and Sensitivity Analysis of Singleness Drivers in Iran 1414

Marriage as a way of forming a family has always been the focus of cultures and societies. In recent decades, the pattern of marriage has undergone many changes. Singleness and delay in marriage are important changes in this regard. In our country, the delay in getting married and staying single has been an increasing trend over the years too. The study is to investigate the probability of occurrence and sensitivity analysis of singleness drivers in Iran 1414. Using the drivers of singleness in Iran, assumptions were made for the future of singleness. The assumptions were matrixed by experts to comment on their probability of occurrence. Data were analyzed by Smic-Prob Expert software. The probability of the six hypotheses being plotted was obtained. The assumption of “the increasing influence of mass media and social networks on changing youth attitudes” has the highest chance of occurring. Probability of potential scenarios showed that a future in which all assumptions occur, has the highest probability of occurrence. The results of the sensitivity analysis also showed that the assumption of the influence of the mass media has the highest effect on other assumptions. This analysis showed the importance of this assumption and revealed the need for special attention to it in planning and policy making.