Application of Bayesian Network in Investigating the Impact of Agricultural Productivity and Business Environment on Food Production Index in Iran

Food security is one of the main goals of economic growth and development of each country. , in this study, Due to the importance of agricultural sector in food security, the effect of agricultural productivity and Business environment on food production index in Iran was investigated using Bayesian network during 2001-2016. One of the indicators of food security that is based on micro data is the food production index. The food production index includes food products that are considered edible and contain nutrients. But coffee and tea are an exception, because although they are edible, they have no nutritional value. This index is calculated as the ratio of food production value to the value of basic food production. Also, the health and food security of a country is directly dependent on agricultural production. One of the important indicators in the field of improving domestic production and subsequent food security is improving business environment, which its role in increasing production, especially in the agricultural sector, has been ignored. Improving the business environment is a key step in developing private sector investment, product and employment in the country. Although many studies have attempted to investigate effective factors on food security, but impact of the agricultural productivity index and business environment has not been considered. The institutional environment in which all economic businesses are formed, or have gone bankrupt and exit is called the business environment of economic activities. Improving the business environment by increasing entrepreneurship, increasing investment, reducing the informal sector, reducing production costs and prices of domestic goods, strengthening property rights, reducing corruption and reducing smuggling will increase economic growth. In this study, the effect of two factors of agricultural sector productivity and business environment on food security as factors affecting domestic production has been investigated. Various studies have proven the establishment of food security through supportive policies in the agricultural sector and increasing production in this sector. None of the studies, in particular, examined the effect of agricultural productivity on food security.

In this study, the effect of agricultural productivity and Business environment on food production index in Iran is investigated using Bayesian network during 2001-2016. The Bayesian network is a probabilistic graph pattern that shows a set of variables and probabilities associated with each. This network is a straightforward, cyclical graph in which nodes are problem variables. The structure of a Bayesian network is, in fact, a graph of the interaction of the variables to be modeled. In addition to showing the quality of the relationship between the problem variables, it also shows the quantity of the relationship between these variables. Each network consists of three components: 1) nodes 2) the relationship between nodes and 3) the conditional probability table of nodes. The variables in the graph and the links show the relationships between the variables. The conditional probability table is also used to define the conditional probability of causal relationships.

The results showed that the increase in the real exchange rate, agricultural productivity, water productivity in the agricultural sector, and the improvement of the business environment have led to an increase in the food production index in Iran. The business environment is very important in the prosperity of production because an unfavorable business environment would increase production costs and reduce the competitiveness of goods in the international arena. Inadequate business environment has a significant impact on reducing economic growth and, consequently, the growth of the agricultural sector. Agriculture is considered as an area or platform for business. Therefore the development of agricultural businesses is also a manifestation of entrepreneurial behavior in this sector. Improving the business environment is a key step in the development of private sector investment, production and employment in the country. By providing the right conditions for competitiveness and effective entry of the private sector, a decisive role in it plays the economic growth and development of the country. Therefore, simplifying the licensing process; Reducing administrative procedures and time to enforce customs tariffs and simplifying rules and regulations are effective in improving the business environment. The health and food security of a country is directly dependent on the production of the agricultural sector. The results showed that the share of value added of the agricultural sector in GDP and grain production, as indicators of agricultural productivity, has a positive effect on food security. The agricultural sector has an important role to play in achieving a prosperous production and food security. Therefore, the need to pay attention to the agricultural sector and appropriate support for this sector is felt. Increasing the level of productivity can improve economic growth, optimal use of resources, cost reduction, profitability and production capacity. For this purpose, it is necessary to review the necessary parameters in the design of irrigation systems and to develop design instructions according to the crisis water and soil conditions of the country.