Three Plausible Stories of the Future of Isfahan; Urban Foresight with a Scenario Approach

Problem Statement: 

The city is a complex system of social and economic interactions between a multitude of human and non-human factors that require new approaches to planning and managing it. Futures studies and foresight are new discourses with an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary nature which are among collaborative approaches and can create new perspectives on urban management in combination with conventional urban planning.

The main objective of this study was to provide alternative images of the future of Isfahan city in the framework of scenario method.

The present study was an applied research that, by using cross-impact analysis approach, provides scenarios of future of Isfahan. Participants in this study were 21 experts in urban planning and foresight.

By using the library studies and referring to the upstream documents of Isfahan, 22 primary factors influencing the future of Isfahan were identified. From these 22 factors, by using the Mick-Mac software, 7 factors were selected as key factors. These seven factors were summarized in the format of three driving forces as the bases for developing scenarios facing the municipality of Isfahan: technology, urban economics, and the environment. These scenarios were named: «Garden with Wi-Fi», «Isfahan 13 to B13» and «Now we are all fine but don't believe it». The first scenario illustrates the optimistic and utopian scenario, the second scenario the cynical and destructive one, and the third scenario depicts the continuation of the current status.

Innovation: 

Application of Scenario Planning and Participatory Approach as a new approach in Isfahan urban management.