Identifying and prioritizing risk management indicators in dam-building projects using combination of AHP-ARAS in fuzzy environment based on PMBOK(Case study: dam-building projects)

The main objective of this study is to identify and prioritize the risks of construction projects with a focus on dam-building projects, according to PMBOK standard. Method of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and its risks, using multi-criteria decision-making techniques namely Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a fuzzy environment are applied to try to provide practical solutions. 31 experts’ opinions are collected in tow steps which in the first one their opinions about the potential risks of construction projects with a focus on dam-building projects are considered; while the second step expressed in qualitative terms for parameters probability of risks’ occurrence, severity of risks’ impacts, and capability of risks’ prediction before occurrence. Results show that the Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) were calculated in a range of 80.7 for lack of experienced project engineers to 274.5 for the delay in paying contractors. Also “delay in providing equipment” with the rate of 1.000 was ranked as 1, “financial issues” with the rate of 0.980 was ranked as 2, and “delay in notifying the plans with the rate of0.909 was ranked as 3 were indicated as the most important potential risks in dam-building projects.