Identifying the key drivers of sustainable tourism and developing the most desirable scenario: A Case study of the historical city of Meybod

Tourism is one of the most important tools of development in the world. In their policies and programs, many countries in the world pay special attention to tourism as an effective tool for political, cultural and economic development. Understanding future developments and planning for them is an inevitable necessity. This research aims to identify the main factors involved in tourism and delineate a realistic and desirable future for the sustainable tourism in Meybod. The study is practical in terms of purpose. In terms of method, it is a combination of documentation and survey. In terms of nature, it is based on new methods of futurology, analysis and exploration conducted by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The prioritization of possible scenarios for the tourism in Meybod is based on two indicators including probability and desirability. The research was carried out in three stages: determining the key indicators through the Delphi method, identifying the vital drivers through the MicMac software based on a cross-section analysis and formulating different scenarios. For the statistical population, a number of geography and urban and regional planning specialists, tourism specialists and executive experts of the province and city were selected. As the results showed, among 14 key factors, five drivers including attractions, history, economy, management and planning were identified as vital drivers of the development of Meybod tourism industry. The vital drivers in three modes, three modes and 82% of modes indicated the desirability of sustainable tourism. The most desirable scenario was proposed as the Golden Meybod scenario, which will be based on creating amenities and a variety of tourist attractions along with management and planning.