Providing an economy-measuring model for predicting road accident causalities

A rise in vehicles and growing use of autos in the last half a century has brought about adverse effects, from which, one can refer to the level of accidents and degree of life and financial damages in each year. According to available reports, thousands of people lose their lives each year because of road accidents. Many of whom get wounded and thus face with hefty costs. In this research, by using a regression economy-measuring model, attempts are mead to predict the number of intercity causalities in the city of Isfahan. The statistics used in this research shows the time series of the number of causalities in the said province from March 2009 to October 2015. Research fi dings showed that the number of intercity casualties due to road accidents enjoyed time series respectively (ARIMA 3.1.2. and ARIMA 3.1.4). Also, values predicted indicate the number of fatalities has been decreasing and the number of injured was rising, suggesting reduced severity of accidents in Isfahan.