Comparison of Logistic Regression and Frequency Ratio and Entropy Models in Landslide Failure Probability of Forest road Trenches

The present study compares the performance of three statistical models including logistic regression, frequency ratio and maximum entropy in preparing the zoning map of landslide sensitivity on the watersheds of 24 and 25 (Malak-roud and Shen-roud) regions of Guilan province. For this purpose, all the roads of the two areas were survyed and the number of 844 landslides were detected. Then effective data layers on landslide formation were prepared and then zoning maps of the landslide sensitivity were extracted to the three methods. The results showed that the logistic regression model has an accuracy of 74.6 percent of the Area under ROC Curve in prediction of sensitive areas compared to the accuracy of 68.2 and 65.2 percent by the probabilistic frequency ratio model and Entropy model, respectively. Moreover, based on the logistic regression model, the distance and slope factors have the highest effect on the landslide of forest road trenches. According to this study, a total of 4.32 square kilometers (43.25%) of the landslide areas is categorized in very high and high susceptible groups which have occurred along 51.38 percent of the area. Despite the lack of consideration to superstructure conditions in the present study, a notable percentage of existing roads are exposed to the collapse of trenches and require adequate funding for repair operations. According to the logging ban as a new approach in forest utilization and lack of revenue regeneration of alternative conservation projects great dangers threaten the forest engineering installations and road structures.