Evaluating the system reliability and availability under fuzzy Bayesian approach

Assessing the reliability and availability of the production system reduces the likelihood of sudden and costly stops, which is very risky. To this end, this paper attempts to provide a new way to determine the reliability and availability of a production system, which can be used for a variety of failure components such as materials, supplies, personnel and machinery. Therefore, using Fuzzy Bayesian Approach, unrealistic events that are actually created in a production system have been processed and the proposed model has been used to assess the condition of Pegah Fars milk factory, so that the rate of failure and repair and reliability of components and system with Bayesian method was calculated. And because the available information space is uncertain, the reliability parameters became fuzzy. Then the availability of the components and then the whole system was calculated using the formula provided by Martz and Waller and the Bayesian method, and the parameters of availability were converted into fuzzy. Finally, the information obtained about the reliability and availability of the system and components were analyzed, that the results show the improved approach, provides a more accurate estimate of reliability and availability.