Scenarios for the Future of Iranian Library Catalogs

To examine possible scenarios and propose the desired ones for the future of library catalogs in Irn

Experts views are sought, cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) and scenario planning are applied to develop scenarios. Scenario Wizard software was used for analysis.

4 strategic driving forces including: 1) quantity and quality of library catalogs in the virtual environment, 2) modification and updating of tools and standards, 3) library without walls, and 4) Interaction between library cataloging professionals and library system designers were identified based on which 12 favorable, static, and critical conditions were considered. Finally, 5 scenarios including: 1) favorable situation, 2) static, 3) unfavorable trends, 4) on the verge of crisis, and 5) crisis were selected with the highest consistency, then the characteristics of each of them were examined. Due to the strong influence and effectiveness among the 4 strategic drivers, the favorable situation scenario and the crisis situation scenario were identified with a strong probability of occurrence.

The juxtaposition and interaction of strategic driving forces, outlines various scenarios for the future of library catalogs in Iran that the occurrence of each of them will have different consequences for libraries and society.
Keywords: Library Catalogs, Scenario Planning, Cross-impact Balance Analysis, Strategic Driving Forces, Scenario Wizard.