Assessment of Various Earthquake Scenarios in Tehran with the Approachof Urban Flexibility

Earthquakes in urban areas worldwide have become a significant concern for residents and city administrators because of potential losses to life and widespread damage to urban infrastructure that occurs after the earthquake. Iran is considered one of the most critical countries globally. Almost all of its regions are subject to medium to large earthquakes. Tehran, as the capital of the country, is no exception to this rule. Since 1830, no earthquake has ever experienced severe earthquakes.

This study aims to prepare an earthquake scenario and identify regions prone to earthquake risk in Tehran City.

The information about the earthquake in Tehran is calculated based on the previous studies of the prevention and management of the Tehran crisis, according to distance and fault arrangement, and the depth of the earthquake. The results were calculated based on three seismic scenarios of Parchin, Niavaran, Moshae, and Varmin, and for each of these scenarios, there was a map of human and construction loss. Considering that the point is given to each of the 500 x 500 networks in each scenario, the most considerable amount obtained in each scenario is presented to the networks mentioned above as the resultant of scenarios, and the consequent result is presented as the resulting maps of an earthquake.

Different maps have been prepared based on possible earthquake scenarios. The most critical situation is considered by comparing each cell, and in the end, the critical map of the earthquake and the identification of critical areas are presented. As a simple software and with the help of GIS software, RADIUS software can help managers and urban planners reach a flexible urban environment. In the earthquake, most of the earthquake damage and the earthquake-related to the fault will be Niavaran. Most of the casualties in the northeast of Tehran will be due to the population density, which is required to pay attention to urban managers in these areas to emergency housing centers, hospitals, and more attention to construction considerations in these areas.