Detection of air temperature and precipitation changes in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces under climate change conditions using MIROC5 model

The abnormalities and the occurrence of climate hazards, the importance of the phenomenon of climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Changes in air temperature and precipitation play a significant role in detecting the effects of climate change. In this study, the perspective of changes in air temperature and precipitation in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces was evaluated with a statistical approach. In this regard, the statistics of weather stations in the period (1986-2015) was used as the base period. For future period, the output of the MIROC5 as general circulation model (GCM) under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios in the form of downscaled data from the MarksimGCM database was used. Results of projecting the future period in the form of high and medium radiative forcing scenarios (RCP) shows an upward trend in the minimum and maximum temperatures of the study area in the future period compared to the base period. This incremental deviation is greater in the decades relative to the present period. Spatially to the time horizon 2061; areas with cooler and warmer temperatures will be added in the province. From the low altitudes or southern part of the province, with the passage to the following decades, the range of milder and warmer temperatures will gradually increase compared to the base period. The Precipitation parameters in the coming period will face a sharp and significant decrease compared to the base period, especially in the wet months of the year. This rainy region of high Zagros range,will face a significant decrease in rainfall in the coming period.