Life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of railway tracks maintenance decisions using the Markov forecast model based on the data of a track recording machine

Rail transportation system plays an important role in the development of the economies of the countries. This system will be worn over time by operation and weather conditions and will require maintenance. One of the goals of this operation is to keep the tracks in an acceptable condition and prevent their excessive deviation from the optimal situation. Railways maintenance and repair management system has been studied and implemented to optimize activities and reduce related costs. Such systems have used various techniques to predict the future state of failure. Choosing the best maintenance policy is the goal of these systems. For policy making, the best and most cost-effective option, life-cycle cost analysis is required. In the following, with the help of the Markov prediction model, the life cycle cost (LCC) model is suggested for rail and ballast. In the end, it was found that the main costs in the ballast part are renewal costs and the track unavailability costs. The effect of renewal tonnage on these two costs is far higher than other costs. As you can see, the lowest ballast life cycle cost in the range of 100 to 150 million gross tons. In this study, assuming annual tonnage (16 million gross tonnages) as previously mentioned, it results a renewal life of about 6 to 10 years. This value for the rails is from 500 to 540 million gross tons, which is equivalent to 30 to 35 years.