Developing Scenarios for Natural Gas Consumer Churn (Case Study of Mazandaran Gas Company)

The future of any business is influenced by a correct understanding of the needs and wants and anticipation of consumer behavior. Presenting a picture of a possible future makes it possible to make decisions and adopt appropriate strategies for influencing and shaping the future.

The present research method is applied and in terms of nature, analytical and exploratory, a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is used. With the help of foresight method, ie., balanced-impact analysis method, the consumption reversal scenarios of  natural gas suppliers were formulated.

The possible scenarios for this study are 162 scenarios for which it is not possible to plan and it is only statistical. Based on the degree of adaptation and impact score, a total of 5 scenarios with high probability of occurrence and 12 weak scenarios were extracted.

5 strong or probable scenarios have been extracted, of which Clear Air scenario with 4 favorable assumptions (80% of desirability) is the most favorable situation as a desirable scenario, Stormy Weather scenario with 4 critical assumptions (80% of critical conditions) is the most unfavorable situation and Scenarios of Cloudy Weather, Scattered Rain and Rainy Weather with the most static states were considered as static scenarios.