Using agent-based modeling to simulate the effect of price scenarios and free branching on water demand

Growing population of the cities along with the desire for better welfare and health has increased the water demand. On the other hand, many cities are located in the arid and semi-arid regions with the low rainfall and renewable water resources. Therefore it causes the water crisis. Shiraz is one of the metropolises that is facing this problem and in the warm seasons of the year experiences the drop in water pressure and water outages. Increasing the water supply, regardless of demand management, will exacerbate the crisis. Water pricing has been also one of the most important concerns of policymakers in demand management. Given the importance of this issue and also the role of social interactions among the consumers and the neighboring community network on the water consumption behavior, the present study concentrates on providing an agent-based framework for examining the water demand and changes in consumption behavior (diffusion process). The model has been calibrated for domestic water consumption in Shiraz for the years 2005-2019. Price increase scenarios (for all or only part of the consumers) as well as granting free branches have been simulated for the years 2020-2032. The results show that small increases in water prices do not have significant effect on consumption and cooperative behavior trend. Also, giving free branching to some consumers will intensify non-cooperative behavior among other consumers and increase the consumption sharply.