Economic evaluation and analysis of the effects of climate change on alfalfa yield in IranWith drought mitigation approach

Alfalfa is the most important forage crop in Iran, which is cultivated in almost all provinces of the country. Considering the economic importance of alfalfa and its sensitivity to drought stress and its special physiological characteristics in drought resistance, this study investigates the risk of drought in different regions on the one hand and the relationship between alfalfa production and drought-determining parameters on the other hand. For this purpose, first the probability of drought in different regions of Iran was calculated based on RDI index, which showed that the probability of drought in some eastern regions of the country is higher than other regions. Then, by estimating the climatic response function of alfalfa yield based on the time series data of 1992-2016 and using the spatial panel method, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes as the two main effective drought reversals on alfalfa yield were investigated. Based on the results of this study and taking into account climate forecasts and the status of available water resources in the future, the development of alfalfa cultivation in the northwestern and western regions of the country and limiting the cultivation of this crop in the eastern regions, will have positive economic effects. Also, using the physiological characteristics of alfalfa in dormancy with temporary cessation of irrigation and allocation of water to alfalfa rotation can be used as a strategy in managing water consumption in drought stress conditions.