Effects of DSM on Final Energy Uses: Implications of MESSAGE Energy Model

This paper aims to produce optimal path to achieve desired energy mix during short- and long-term time intervals. Priority reasearch areas include renewables, productivity of energy uses, and environmental constraints. MESSAGE model is used to evaluate alternative energy supply strategies. Given a vector of demands for specified energy services, MESSAGE determines the optimal final energy demand based on optimizing objective function under a set of user-defined constraints. Before running the MESSAGE, reference energy system of Iran (RES), which consists of resources, energy levels, energy forms, and energy technologies was defined, and then, information related to techo-economical specifications of different technologies was collected.Two Reference Scenarios have considered to estimate the effects of DSM potentials, including Reference+DSM and Reference scenarios. In the Reference+DSM scenario efficiency improvement is considered for each end-use technology in the RES. Comparing the amounts of energy demand in these scenarios shows considerable amount of potential reduction for different energy forms, especially gasoline and gas. According to the results, gasoline and natural gas hold the largest potentials of energy demand reduction, approximately 42% and 39% of total potential, respectively. The significant share of natural gas potential reduction is related to industrial, power plant and residential sectors, which have 19, 16 and 9 billion m3 demand side management potential. In addition, transportation sector has a considerable amount of demand reduction. Results show that the amount of gasoline demand in the reference sector will reach to 107 billion m3, which can be reduced by 51 billion m3 in Reference+DSM scenario.