Analyzing of Olive Industry Dynamics in Iran by Using System Dynamics Approach

Olive Industry is one of the most important industries. In recent years, there has been good planning for the development of this industry in different parts of the supply chain of agriculture and planting of olive tree to conversion industries. To develop industry, we need to estimate the supply and demand behavior of the whole supply chain in the longterm. Therefore, in this paper, using system dynamics, we analyze the dynamics of the olives industry in Iran. The olive industry supply chain has four main parts: olive cultivation and harvest; processing, production, distribution and consumption of olive oil; processing, production, distribution and consumption of table oil; and the cost of oil and table olive. The results of the modeling showed that it was 25 years to reduce the import of table olive and 40 years for olive oil and 60,000 hectares of cultivated land and required 20 processing companies. Also, The behavior of the model under various scenarios indicated that to increase the consumption of olive products, incentive policies in consumption should be accompanied by developmental policies of production, since the consumption is a function of price and price is a function of production. It was also found that the need for investment in land would be reduced by strengthening planting and harvesting technology. The model also showed that because of damage to olive, had to be compensated for by olive imports, so it was necessary to amend the ban bill on imports of olive.