Projection of Quantitative Changes in Groundwater of Ardabil Plain under the Climatic Stresses Based on Precipitation and Runoff

In this study, quantitative changes of groundwater resources were projected in Ardabil plain using HadGEM2-ES climatic output and Eureqa artificial intelligence tools for the three future periods (1418-1400, 1438-1420 and 1440-1458) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that the largest decrease in discharge in summer will be 27%, while the increase in surface runoff in winter is expected to be 12%. The reason for this is the continuation of global warming, which will lead to faster melting of winter snow. The results of the models indicated a decrease in groundwater level in all months of the year in future periods, which has been significant in all periods-scenarios. The groundwater level will decrease between, on average, 1.2m to 3.2m. Reduction rainfall and discharge in the summer - which coincides with the growing season - will also intensify the increase in groundwater harvesting. This will exacerbate the water crisis in the region.