Identifying the drivers of Pan-Kurdism in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The future is uncertain, and scenarios teach us to think about the unknown, to unravel today's cumbersome assumptions, and to be able to identify the discontinuities that may change our world. Accordingly, in order to predict the security situation of the country in the coming years and design appropriate security scenarios, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and ethnic challenges. The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers of pan-Kurdish ideology in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This research is applied in terms of nature and purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. Its statistical population is in the form of a panel of experts according to the futures research approach. The drivers of this research were identified by cross-matrix method using Mick Mac software.

The findings of this study showed seven variables: the involvement of foreign factors, the activities of Kurdish-language satellite networks, the development of virtual networks, underdevelopment, the substitution of Persian instead of the native language, regional competition and the effects of Iraqi Kurdistan. They were identified as key variables extracted from Mick Mac software in the form of three economic, political and cultural drivers.

The results of this study also indicate that all seven variables identified by Mick Mac software are consistent with the realities and situation of pan-Kurdism in the region.