Assessment of Discharge Probability Distribution Effect on Hydropower Energy Optimization of Maroun Reservoir

Reservoirs are operated and designed in several aims such as, water demand supply, hydropower energy generation and flood control reduction. Optimization of reservoir operation is one of the most important issue in water basin. In this study, optimization of reservoir operation to obtain the maximum agriculture water supply and hydropower energy production are considered by using chance constrained linear programming (CCLP). Monthly inflow of 52 years is used to modeling of experimental Weibul probability distribution for each month. Annual energy production of Maroon reservoir is obtained by Lingo 16.0 software for a known agriculture water supply (P) and installed capacity 150 MW. Then, the best probability distribution of reservoir inflow is obtained by Easyfit software 6.0 for each month. The results showed that the maximum P are calculated 85% and 87% and also the annual hydropower energy is 174.3 and 172.9 Giga watt-hour (GWh) using experimental Weibul probability distribution and the best probability distribution of reservoir inflow, respectively. Thus, obtaining the best Inflow probability distribution does have insignificant effect on optimization. So, considering only the experimental Weibul probability distribution of reservoir inflow is sufficient in hydropower optimization using CCLP approach.