Regeneration of Worn-Out Textures with a Scenario-Based Planning ApproachCase Study: Worn-Out Textures of Urmia Border City

Border provinces play a vital role in development and security. One of the manifestations of instability and insecurity in cities is inefficient and worn-out neighborhoods in urban areas. Many of these dysfunctional neighborhoods in historically ancient cities that were once vibrant, attractive, and high-quality have declined in urban, economic, and cultural life for various reasons and have thus lost their charm and quality. Simultaneously with the above issues, paying attention to the old and worn-out textures and eliminating their instability has become a serious and central issue in cities. But in today's world, chaos, rapid change, constant and the emergence of new problems have made planning and policy-making in this area heal the issues on a temporary and short-term basis. In the border city of Urmia, the policies of improvement and modernization applied are mainly coercive, and economy-oriented policies, which have not been very systematic and forward-looking, and therefore have not been very successful in implementation. Therefore, solving these problems will not be possible except by thinking of macro measures and adopting new approaches. Accordingly, in this research, with the futures studies approach, the most important drivers affecting the regeneration of the worn-out textures of Urmia and the development of possible scenarios have been done. Based on the Mick Mac software analysis, out of 46 initial factors, 15 factors have been identified as effective critical drivers. Also, based on the script wizard software, five strong scenarios, 21 plausible scenarios, and 920 weak scenarios have been obtained. From these three categories of scenarios, by performing the validity of the scenarios, plausible scenarios have been introduced as the most probable one for the worn-out texture of Urmia.