Simulated Synthetic Population Projection Using an Extended Model

Population projections of small areas have attracted the attention of many researchers in applied demographics for many years. According to the suggested population policies of Iran in recent years and considering the need of different governmental agencies for having enough information about population and individual characteristics in small areas, studying and presenting an appropriate model of population projections for small areas seems more necessary than ever. Given that today not only population projections include estimating the number of populations and identifying their specific characteristics, but also more projections are likely to project different required characteristics of organizations. The present study attempts to introduce a model for population projections in small areas. In this study, "city" is considered as a small area. For the purpose of surveying population projection between two censuses in Iran, 2006 and 2011, Mahallat, a central city in this country, has been selected among many cities since its geographical area has not been changed from 1996 to 2011. Hence, the present article projects simulated synthetic population in 2011 with distinctive characteristics of 2006 population by presenting an extended model and comparing it with projected population from the existing model.