Analysis of Factors Affecting Rate of Empty House in Iran from 2006 to 2016 through Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM)

Housing as an individual social benefit and in the form of private goods in the consumer and capital markets is exchanged by adjusting forces such as the price between demanders and suppliers. The steady rise in housing prices has led to a predictable and repeatable trend in market returns and has increased the incentive to invest in housing. According to the literature on housing economics, one of the important reasons for the emergence of vacant houses is the increasing demand for housing capital, but despite such claim in related articles and books, this hypothesis has not yet been put to the test in Iran. This paper uses SmartPLS software and structural equation modeling based on least squares (PLS-SEM) to try to discover the factors affecting the increase in the vacant housing rate in the years 1385, 1390 and 1395 Hijri. For this purpose, the effect of four factors of supply, capital demand, population and purchasing power on the vacant housing rate was tested and the results showed that in 1390 and 1395, the consumer demand decreased (purchasing power decreased) while the  capital demand increased. In some provinces, the main reason for the increase in housing prices have been vacancies. Regarding other factors, in 2006 the vacant housing rate was inversely related to the household purchasing power and capital demand and directly related to supply. In 2011, the vacant housing rate was inversely related to the housing supply. In 2016, the increase in supply played a small role in increasing the rate of vacancy