Spillover between OPEC oil Price and Equity Markets Considering Business Cycles and Structural Breakdown (Case study; GCC Countries and Iran)

Studying the spillover between markets is an important and controversial topic in the financial field. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spillover between OPEC oil prices and the stock market of Iran and GCC countries considering trade cycles and structural failure. The data were collected monthly through the OPEC official web site and the archives of each of the countries listed on the stock exchange index from the beginning of 2012 until the end of the first half of 2018, using bivariate GARCH-BEKK, correlation models and Granger Causality test. The results show that the spillover of OPEC oil price volatility without affecting structural breakdown affects the stock markets of the target countries. But when it comes to structural failure, the results will be different. The results of Granger Causality test also show that there is no causal link between OPEC oil price and Tehran Stock Exchange index, but in some of GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, oil prices at different intervals is due to changes in the stock market index.