Measuring the Performance of Time and Quality of Project Execution Under Uncertainty

Project deviations are so significant that various methods have been proposed to measure them over the years. Earned Duration Management (EDM) is a method that measures project evaluation indexes only by considering the past trend of project execution compared to the baseline program. It ignores all the other factors, which cause much information to be lost to guide managers. Therefore, in this study, a process is proposed. During this process, it is possible to develop EDM indicators using key performance indicators of project quality in a fuzzy manner and based on the identified substantial risks. 

A list of risks was initially identified based on the PMBOK standard's category, and project managers selected the most important ones. In the next step, based on the most critical risks, two key indicators of project equipment and execution performance were defined. Such indicators were presented to managers again to determine their future impact on the project. By defining a triangular fuzzy number, the definite evaluations became fuzzy, since experts expressed the effect in linguistic variables. Finally, the indicators entered into the EDM, and the method was developed. 

In this study, Key Performance Indicators were used to increase EDM’s accuracy. First, the three risks of delay in receiving project resources, lack of timely allocation of financial resources, and disruption in materials preparation were identified as the main risks. Then, to study the status of the risks, two indicators were defined (PSI, PEI). These two indicators were estimated, up to 50% of the simulated project. Concerning the first indicator, the more the value, the more acceptable project performance was. Considering another indicator, the situation was contrariwise. Then, the future status of the indicators was examined by consulting managers and making the indicators in a fuzzy manner. The effect of the indicators was determined through the EDTC variable in the EDM. It should be noted that the final estimated time was used to measure the accuracy of the proposed method. The studied project was simulated using the prevailing situation in Matlab software. The end time of this simulated project was estimated at 1300 days. Then, the project was evaluated day by day till its 50% completion using EDM, and the end time of 1225 days was estimated. The same evaluation was performed for the proposed method, and the final time (1270, 1247, 1240) was determined. Because this time was closer to the simulated time, it was evident that the proposed method had the highest accuracy.

In this study, to prevent information disclosure, project simulation was used instead of the actual project to evaluate the indicators and advance the project. Therefore, although the accuracy was estimated in this paper, its more exact value might be requested in future research. Consequently, the proposed method can be applied in an actual project, and the accuracy of the model can be measured, consequently. 

The proposed process and method in this research can be used in the implementation and planning stages of any other project. The process should be localized because the risks vary from project to project. Besides, the critical risks of each project cannot be compared with the other projects. Therefore, after examining each project's risks and defining indicators related to the selected risks, the proposed method can be applied in all project-based organizations and on any project type.

Today, the construction and operation of projects are among the factors that affect the countries' growth and development. Deviations from the budgets allocated to the project are an integral part of project implementation and are not dependent upon a specific area or even a particular management and implementation method. Therefore, proper planning and control of projects are essential. This paper provides an effective model for senior project managers to complete projects on time. Successful implementation of projects leads to economic prosperity. Also, improving the quality and performance provides a calmer social environment for people and creates many environmental benefits.

In this study, the indicators of the EDM method were developed using the key performance indexes. Such indexes were associated with the quality of project performance execution and were estimated under uncertainty conditions; thereby, more information can be transferred to the project management. The defined performance indicators are measurable during the process, and their impact on the ongoing project is monitored. The innovations of this study are twofold: Applying the performance index developed the EDM method; and defining the quality performance index in fuzzy terms.