Analysis of safety management in villages around the metropolis of Tehran using Delphi technique and presenting the desired model of safe village

Villages as one of the human habitats and environmental hazards as a natural phenomenon are the most important issues in geography in the field of spatial planning. Therefore, considering the ideals of achieving sustainable development, improving the quality of life, welfare and social and environmental development, it is necessary that natural hazards and vulnerability to it in the focus of develop- ment and planning in various sectoral and spatial dimensions and at different local levels. In this regard, the present study seeks to .provide a favorable model of safety of rural settlements in Tehran The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology and applied in terms of purpose. Data collection and information was done in the field (Delphi questionnaire) and documents and in the analysis with the help of Arc GIS software. Expert Choice 11. SPSS statistical and spatial analysis was used. The results of Delphi technique show that there is no effective model in the safe- ty management of rural centers. These centers are dependent on urban centers in terms of safety and fire services, and as a result, the lack of preventive methods on the one hand and the facilities of appropriate facilities and equipment on the other hand cause the high vulnerability of these centers to hazards. Also, spatial analysis shows that the majority of villages in Tehran in the southern half of the city and in the downstream part of Tehran metropolis were lo- cated at altitudes less than 1400 meters, while in terms of environ- mental hazards (earthquake, flood) have the highest vulnerability and noteworthy These centers also face serious problems in terms of fire services due to the existence of industrial units and ware- houses, and jobs that have a high risk of fire. The correlation anal- ysis of the research also shows that the farther away from Tehran the rural centers are, the more deprived they are in terms of security services. Also, the higher the environmental risks of the village, the .greater the job and income dependence of the village on Tehran In the villages of Tehran, the safety of the integrated management of the village and the city by giving priority to the prevention and preparation phase with the participation of rural volunteer forces can be a suitable model in the field of safety and bring the villages .to sustainable conditions in terms of safety