Time of Day Model, a Different Approach to Identify Effective Factors in Mode Choice, Evidence from Mashhad

An increase in population and car ownership has caused significant changes in traffic flow patterns at different periods of the day. Considering the importance of analyzing different periods, the time of day (TOD) model is crucial and needs to be accounted for more explicitly. However, few studies have been conducted in this field, which prompted the authors to investigate TOD models and their calibration for mode choice of Mashhad using multinomial logit (MNL) quantifying its impact in demand analysis. In this study, household data and origin-destination matrix of 253 traffic analysis zones of Mashhad (including socio-economic, transportation network, land use, and trip characteristics) were used. Model results showed that not only the effective factors in mode choice and their impacts are different in various periods and trip purposes but also for the same purpose and mode, these factors are different for various periods. More specifically, an increase in car ownership will increase the probability of choosing both private cars and taxis for all trip purposes, but to a different extent for different periods. Tendency to use taxis for work trips reduces as trip distance increases five kilometers due to its high cost, and for educational trips reduces at noon peak due to availability of school buses and lower cost of buses. Moreover, the likelihood of choosing a bus for educational trips had a direct relationship with the ratio of students to the population of each zone.