Investigating the effect of temperature trend self-analysis on drought risk management (Case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province)

Worldwide, drought ranks first among all natural hazards in terms of the number of people directly affected. Climatic telecommunication patterns are complex and organized systems due to the dissemination of random behaviors in different years. In different years, it has created sometimes regular and sometimes random environmental events (drought and wet season) in an area. In the present study, the effects of 26 remote connection models with monthly, quarterly and annual average for 1397 to 1399 and its relationship with drought audiences in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province were investigated. In this study, a variety of remote connection patterns and 4 synoptic stations of Borujen, Shahrekord, Lordegan and Koohrang along with SPEI drought index in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province were self-analyzed. Data were analyzed using various statistical methods including descriptive statistics, correlation and Mann-Kendall test. The most severe droughts are related to area four (Koohrang). Among the remote connection patterns, the western hemisphere hot pool pattern has the greatest impact on the occurrence of drought in the southwestern regions of the province. The relationship between this index and drought is positive in this area. Due to the drought in the Borujen area, most of the remote linking patterns, including the Atlantic Index and the pattern of decade-long Pacific and North Atlantic fluctuations in autumn are significant. Drought in the southern half (Lordegan) in the warm season (spring and summer) shows a significant relationship with the tropical pattern of the South Atlantic, the tropical index of the North Atlantic and the East Atlantic. Droughts in the northwest (Shahrekord) have a significant relationship with the multivariate index of Enso and Atlas North and East Aram shows that the SPEI index of Lordegan stations and central parts of Farsan showed that drought events in the central and eastern regions of Chahar province Mahal and Bakhtiari has more abundance and intensity with the tropical patterns of the northern hemisphere and Enso. 30% suffer from severe drought and 15% suffer from severe drought.