The Effect of Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Insurance Premiums in Iran

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.