Scenarios Facing the Issue of the 7th of Aban (Celebrating the day of Cyrus)

On the 7th of Aban, 2016, a large crowd gathered near the tomb of Cyrus in Pasargad, Fars province, and chanted destructive slogans along with anti-norm actions. From 2017 onwards, with the intervention of the official authorities of the country, the ceremony was not allowed and the issue was taken out of the cultural sphere and turned into political-security. The present study has examined the scenarios of the progress of the 7th of Aban issue. Six hypotheses were extracted from in-depth interviews with experts on the subject and its dimensions as the future of the problem. After extracting the hypotheses, the individual and conditional probabilities of the hypotheses were assessed by constructing questionnaires. Data were analyzed using Smic prob-Expert software. The findings show a security response to the large public participation in the ceremony, Holding this ceremony and other national monuments (such as Yaqub Laith Saffari) in other parts of the country, There are hypotheses that are more likely to occur than other hypotheses. Also, among the ten scenarios that are most likely to occur, the most likely scenario, The scenario is a continuation of the status quo. The presence and absence of variables in this scenario is as follows: Security crackdown on participants in the absence of the formation of popular protest waves in other parts of the country, Absence of giving permission to hold a ceremony on the 7th of Aban, Holding this ceremony and other memorials of historical and ancient figures in other regions, And the absence of forgetfulness is the issue and the impossibility of holding ceremonies despite the opposition of the system. Finally, it can be said that a favorable future is not predicted for the issue under consideration.