The Blessing or Curse of Natural Gas in Iran: Future Study of Natural Gas Exports Until 2050

According to the forecasts of reputable international centers, natural gas will play the most effective role in the future of world energy. Because Iran has one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world; This energy source can be considered as the main advantage of Iran in the domestic and international arena. In the meantime, one of the options facing the country is the export of this energy source. Considering that the export of natural gas, in addition to economic benefits, has many political-security benefits for the country; Determining the goals and scenarios for the advancement of natural gas exports has always been one of the main issues facing the country's energy sector. Target countries are interested in not limiting the source of their natural gas supply to fixed and specific sources; Therefore, they have long paid special attention to Iran. Therefore, it is important to study the future status of Iran's natural gas exports. The purpose of this study is to design scenarios for the country's natural gas exports until 2050 using the opinion of the elite and the method used in the research is a combination of the Delphi method and interaction analysis method. The three factors of Iran's isolation from the world trade and financial system, the political influence of powerful countries in the target country and the status of natural gas resources, their production and development in the target countries have been identified as key factors and based on future trends Three key effective factors, four compatible natural gas export scenarios were identified. Finally, after explaining each of these scenarios, policy recommendations have been made to achieve a favorable situation in Iran's natural gas exports.