Future scenarios for the spread of extremism in Central Asia and strategies confronting it

Although in the current situation in the West Asian region is known as one of the main centers of crisis in world politics, but due to the existence of suitable grounds for the spread of Islamic extremist ideas in areas such as Central Asia, this issue is likely to become one of the centers of crisis on a large scale in the future. The present study seeks to answer the questions: What are the main grounds for the spread of Islamic extremism and radicalism in the Central Asian region? What scenarios can be considered for the expansion of the activities of extremist groups in the Central Asian region? Regarding the geopolitical situation of these countries and their proximity to the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, what strategies can be put on the agenda to counter the growth of extremism in this region and prevent the dangers of its growth for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The tool for answering the questions will be a combination of causal layer analysis and scenario writing. The findings of the study indicate that the growth of Islamic radicalism and its similarity with Takfiri-jihadi thought in the future sphere of the region, has turned it into one of the scenarios with high certainty and probability of occurrence. Iran's geographical proximity to Central Asia causes the threat to extend into Iranian territory.