Analysis of macroeconomic variables affecting the marital desire index in Iran

The New Home Economy is known for the founding of the early literature by Samuelson and its expansion by Becker. The existence of proven correlations between the decision to marry with strategic variables such as marriage rate, birth rate, marriage age, and divorce rate undoubtedly highlights the importance of identifying marital desire behaviors in order to influence other important social categories. The present study, while introducing the marital desire index as an explanatory component of the status of family formation and dissolution, is trying to examine the macroeconomic factors affecting this index.

ARDL method was used to estimate the research model and while performing related tests, the results were presented in both short and long term.

The results show that the growth of GDP in the short and long term has a positive and significant effect on the marital desire index. In the short and long term, the Gini coefficient and income inequality inequality has a negative and significant effect on the marital desire index. Unemployment rate and inflation rate at least in the short term have a positive and significant effect on the marital desire index. Inflation also has a positive effect on the marital desire index in the long run.

We can expect that in periods of economic prosperity, married to rise despite high rates of inflation lasting negative effects on the purchasing power of households on welfare and leaves.