Designing foresight framework of regional development based on social and cultural developments with hybrid approach cross-impact matrix and Scenario Planning(Case study: Yazd province)

Social and cultural developments are one of the main goals of regional development. This research uses social research approaches as well as planning models that are designed based on the scenario, to study social and cultural development in Yazd province based on the national vision document. In the first step of the research, 33 factors were identified that these factors have somehow affected the process of social and cultural development in Yazd province. After conducting various interviews with experts, 9 key factors were identified from 33 factors based on upstream documents. Then, for each of the factors based on different scenarios, 18 favorable and unfavorable situations in the future of the province were identified. Then, by forming a matrix of cross-effects through MicMac software and also using the knowledge of social science experts in assessing the effects of the occurrence of each situation on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other situations in the province, using the capabilities of Scenario Wizard software. 6 scenarios with very high compatibility were extracted. The results show the identification of three factors, social justice, social capital and quality of life as the main and effective actors in the process of social and cultural development in Yazd province. The results also indicate that the current status of each of the factors identified in the study is not very appropriate. The possible scenarios formed in this study raise hopes for improving the development situation in the province.