Analysis of Uncertainties Affecting the Banking System Performance by Taking Advantage of CAMELS Model and Social Network Analysis (SNA)(Case study: Bank Saderat Iran)

The performance of the Iranian banking system with a set of challenges takes place in an unstable environment with high uncertainty. The aim of this study is to identify and assess existing and uncertainties affecting the performance of the banking system based on the international indicators of CAMELS to determine the category of critical uncertainties. In this study, an attempt has been made to use a new approach in assessing the uncertainty of the banking system by embedding a social network analysis approach in the KAMELZ performance evaluation model. For this purpose, the future uncertainties of the banking system in terms of the importance of uncertainties in the communication network between them using the SNA social network analysis approach based on the concepts of centrality in the communication network Uncertainties using USINET software It was analyzed and drawn using Net Draw software and critical uncertainties were extracted. Then, the impact of uncertainties on the performance of the banking system is categorized through the Significance-Performance Matrix (IPM). Based on the research findings, the poor economic performance of inflation, exchange rate, tightening of sanctions and increase in financial costs, political instability and its effect on overdue claims of the public and non-governmental sector, digital transformation in the blockchain banking industry and Digital money and government intervention in the allocation of resources and bank management are critical uncertainties for the Iranian banking system