Runoff forecast with SVR model in climate scenarios and estimation of water demands due to changes in WEAP model

Today, the effects of climate change and global warming have been proven due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the world. In this research, the monthly values of temperature, precipitation and discharge of Jamishan Dam in the years 1988-2017 have been considered as the base period. Simulation of resources and uses of the jamishan Dam catchment area was investigated using the WEAP model with different cultivation patterns in the area. To evaluate the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature parameters in this region, RCP8.5 scenario outputs of HADGEM2_ES and MIROC5 models and a series of CMIP5 reporting models were used and the output of these models was downscaled for the region. In this research, change factor method used for downscaling and the monthly temperature and precipitation parameters of Jamishan Dam were produced for the period 2021-2050. In order to study the runoff of the region due to climate change, the SVR model was studied. The results of the climate model show an average temperature increase of 0.5 to 1 ° C. The simulated rainfall results show that the average monthly rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario in the future period in HADGEM2_ES model increased by 1.3% and in MIROC5 model decreased by 6% compared to the base period. Examination of the results of discharge forecast in SVR method indicates that runoff is associated with a decrease compared to the base period.Simulation of different cultivation patterns in WEAP shows that the average supply is 70% in the SVR method.