Impact analysis of the early retirement in Iranian Social Security Pension Fund using system dynamics on the horizon 2051

Measuring the impact of various factors on pension systems is not easily possible due to the multiplicity of influential variables and their change in long-term horizons. The purpose of this article is to provide a model by which the impact of early retirement laws on the pension fund can be predicted.

This study, using system dynamics and considering feedback loops, leads to understanding nonlinear behavior and recognizing the laws governing the phenomenon of early retirement, and designs and implements a model for analyzing the impact of the above pensions in the Social Security Organization. It seems to have the characteristics of the real world to a large extent.

The ratio of early retirees to ordinary retirees in 2051 will increase significantly compared to 2016.Increasing early retirement will also lead to a reduction in Insured and increase in retirees and survivors; So that an increase of one percent can reduce the organization's annual revenue by an average of 16,000 billion rials over the next 35 years.

The Approval of some laws, regardless of the consequences, can jeopardize the stability of the fund and the economic and social security in the long time. The model presented in this study shows that by maintaining the current situation, the demand for early retirement has an upward trend and will put a heavy financial burden on the organization. This issue requires the amendment of the above laws and the introduction of more restrictions on the use of early retirement.