Forecast of carbon dioxide emissions in Iran and polluting sectors: Long-term memory approach

Pollution is one of the problems of the present century and countries are trying to reduce pollution with international treaties. According to the World Bank's assessment of the damage to Iran's environment, in the annual report on the cost of environmental degradation is about 5 to 10 percent of GDP. According to the World Bank report, Iran is one of the countries with high carbon dioxide emissions, so research on emissions is important. This study for the first time predicts carbon dioxide emissions in Iran and polluting parts, using ARIFMA-FIGARCH method in the period 1971-71. The results show that carbon dioxide emissions in Iran, industry and services will increase.In 2035, carbon dioxide emissions in the country are expected to reach 745876 thousand tons, in the industrial sector to 25.18 percent of fuel consumption and in the service sector to 25.89 percent of fuel consumption.Development programs have failed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.