Vegetation trend analysis using NDVI time series of Modis satellite in the northeast of Iran

Vegetation is very important in providing organic matter, regulating the carbon cycle and exchanging energy at the surface. In recent years, climate change and global warming have created frequent events such as floods, high temperatures and droughts that can damage terrestrial ecosystems. Weather fluctuation due to climate change directly affects vegetation growth, on the other hand, vegetation respond to climate change by regulating water, energy exchange, and carbon dioxide concentrations.

In this study, which was conducted to investigate the trend of vegetation changes in the study area during the period 2001-2018, 16-day combined time series data of MODIS-NDVI called MOD13Q1 with a spatial resolution of 250 meters was used. In this study in order to investigate the significance trend of vegetation cover, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was taken. Also the relationship between vegetation changes and altitude was investigated.

Of the total area of the study area, 52% of the area had a decreasing trend of vegetation and the rest showed an increasing trend of vegetation, although a significant decrease in vegetation at the level of 5 and 1% occurred in 36% and 32% of the area, respectively. Also, 31 and 26 percent of the study area had a significant increase in vegetation at the level of 5 and 1 percent. In the study of the relationship between Z-Kendall statistic and height, the results showed that with increasing the height of Z-Kendall statistic increases and the correlation coefficient of height with Z-statistic is about 0.62. It seems that significant positive trends in vegetation occur at higher altitudes and significant negative trends in vegetation occur at lower altitudes. 99% and altitudes of 670 and 840 were obtained for the negative trend of 95 and 99%. In other words, at altitudes above 2030 and 1860, the trend of vegetation changes is positive and at altitudes below 670 and 840 meters, the trend of vegetation changes is significantly decreasing.

The results of this study showed a significant trend of greening at altitudes of more than 2030 meters in the region. It seems that with the increase of temperature due to climate change at elevated area, suitable temperature conditions and increasing of growing season length is provided for crop growth at altitudes. This increase in vegetation was further observed in the east and northeast of the study area. Also, the significant decrease in vegetation in low altitude areas less than 670 meters can be due to increased water requirement of low altitude plants and the occurrence of temperature stresses in these areas, which are mostly in the eastern, southern and low altitudes of the study area. However, it seems that the area between these two altitudes have not had a significant trend in vegetation changes.