Investigating the Crowding Out effect on the Tourism Economy of Mashhad

One of the negative effects on tourism destinations due to the externalities of peak periods is the reduction in travel demand because of crowding out. This study investigate the crowding out effect on tourism in Mashhad, the period of Nowruz 1398. The research methodology is based on the combination of survey data of Nowruz 2019 and registration data of spring and Nowruz 2011-2019, is based on the theoretical concepts and mathematical modeling of the Preuss (2011) study. The results of the research indicate the existence of a significant effect of crowding out in the Nowruz holiday in Mashhad. Despite the large investments in tourism in this city and the high share of tourism facilities in this city (compared to the country), still in peak periods of tourism, these facilities do not meet the needs of all tourists. Although the crowding out effect obtained during Nowruz 1398 in Mashhad is about 24% of the total number of stay-night tourists in this city, but this effect is expected to be much less than other day of year. Therefore, attracting more capital to build tourism facilities (especially accommodation units), cannot be considered as a useful solution to reduce the crowding out effect.