Optimal Water Allocation for Drinking and Industrial Consumptions With Decision Support Systems and Time Series model Approach (Case Study: Neyshabur Bar Dam)

Bar reservoir dam has been constructed in 23 km northwest Neyshabur, to provide the urban drinking water and Neyshabur steel factory water demand. Simulation-optimization model of water resources planning (MODSIM) along with the surface flow time series modeling (SARIMA) were utilized to achieve reliable measures for water allocation to forecast the next 10 years (1396-1406). The modeling has been made based on three time-series scenarios of long-term (1348-1396), short-term (recent 10 years 1386-1396), and forecast (next 10 years). The results of  the study indicated the appropriate ability of the time series models to simulate river surface run-off. Modeling of water resources planning of the Bar project shows the reliability of water supply based on the long-term time-series information to provide the steel factory and the Neyshabur drinking water demand equal 80% and 74%, respectively. These values are estimated at 59% and 50%, respectively, according to the recent-10-year time series  That shows the impact of recent droughts and the need for altering the basin water allocation planning. Changes in reservoir water volume over the last ten years show that in the majority of the months of all years, except for 1388 and 1389, there is no water for allocation in the dam reservoir. Therefore, despite the high reliability of water allocation in the long term, the reliability in the short term is low and indicates high risk to supply water requirements.