Analysis of Dust Phenomenon Using Sand Dune Mobility Indices and Predicting it with Sensitivity Analysis in Northeast Border of Iran

Long-term monitoring as well as the impacts of climate change on sand dune mobility play a crucial role in reducing their adverse effects, including creating dusty days, potential risks of reduced air quality, and other environmental and health risks. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the dust phenomenon and its origin, to analyze the mobility status of sand dunes using two indicators, to determine the effect of climatic conditions on mobility, and also to predict the effects of changes in climate parameters on sand dunes mobility in the strategic area of ​​Sarakhs, located on the northeastern border of the country, for a period of 27 years. The results on the number of dusty days showed that the local dust events at Sarakhs station had a significant increasing trend. The results of sand dune mobility using Lancaster and modified Lancaster indices showed that there was a significant relationship at 99% level with dusty days, based on which the ability to use the modified Lancaster index in this area is raised. It can also be acknowledged that in the study region, increasing environmental drought coming with the mobility of sand dunes increases the risk of desertification. Also, the results of sand mobility sensitivity analysis showed that the combined effect of the frequency of erosive winds or the potential of sand transport and evapotranspiration has the greatest effect on reducing and increasing sand activity in the future.