Identification and analysis of strategic drivers of urban land use change with futuristic approach (Case study: Sanandaj City)

Land use change and urban development are key issues in urban development plans and schemes. Studying the extent of changes in the past and predicting these changes in the future has a significant role in organizing urban spaces. As a result of urban land use changes, various land use patterns are formed, which have different driving forces in different areas. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the drivers of urban land use change and to analyze the mechanism of relationships between these forces by the method of cross-impact analysis (futures research) in Sanandaj. The method of the present research is descriptive-analytical and the method of data collection is documentary and survey through a questionnaire. The statistical population of this research is urban issues experts including university professors, related students, urban affairs experts, city officials, etc. In order to analyze the data, the cross-impact analysis method was used using MICMAC software. The results show that the urban system of Sanandaj is in a state of instability. Also in terms of impact, respectively, with the average weight and column of propulsion, policy and regulatory factors (68.5), environmental (65.5), cultural (65.12), social / demographic (63.66), infrastructure facilities (63), Economic (61.78), institutional (61.75) and spatial-physical (59.2) have the most impact on urban land use changes in Sanandaj. Also, three factors of migration, social status and fair distribution of urban services were identified as strategic drivers.