The impact of economic factors on rural-urban migration of ranchers in Ardabil province

Migration is the movement of people from one ecological region to another, it may be on temporary or permanent basis. Migration is a selective mechanism that impacts individuals and households economically, socially, educationally, and demographically, and it is an important phenomenon that many economists, particularly in developing countries, have addressed. Due to the varying situations in Ardabil province's rural areas, five counties (each with one watershed containing several villages) were chosen for this study, and the economic factors affecting rural-urban migration to ranchers were investigated.

The current research was carried out in the Ardabil province, in 2020. The five counties of Ardabil, Nir, Namin, Sarein, and Kosar were initially evaluated, then, a watershed was selected in each county where watershed management and rangeland restoratoin projects were carried out. In the next step, four villages from Ardabil's Kaftaragh watershed, three villages from Namin's Saqezchichae watershed, nine villages from Sarein's Darvishchae watershed, nine villages from Kosar's Likvanchae watershed, and eight villages from Nir's Siahpoosh watershed were chosen as statistical communities. In total, the statistical community includes ranchers from five counties and 33 villages in Ardabil province. The research method was descriptive-analytical and the data collection techniques were questionnaire, observation, face-to-face interview and village population statistics. The questionnaire included some descriptive features of the villages, village residents and also 11 economic factors. The sample size based on Cochran's formula was estimated to be 372 people. Following that, the proportion of each watershed in the total sample size was calculated, and information was gathered through in-depth interviews and the completion of a questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were employed to extract the features of the statistical population. A single-sample t-test was used to assess the overall status of economic factors affecting ranchers’ migration. In addition, the Friedman test was utilized to rank the most important factors affecting migration and the Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to look for significant differences between villages in terms of economic factors that influence migration.

The results showed that 0.3% of the respondents with the lowest frequency had agricultural job and 85.5% with the highest frequency had the main job of livestock and agriculture. According to the findings, the average income in the agricultural sector is 167.6 million Iranian Rial, while the average income in the livestock sector is 309.1 million Iranian Rial. The income from livestock is nearly double that from agriculture, indicating that the research ranchers’ economy in the study area is more dependent on livestock. Moreover, the findings revealed that the most important economic factors affecting rural-urban migration were the lack of interest of the youth in continuing and expanding agricultural and livestock activities (mean rank = 9.78), more economic opportunities and access to higher-paying jobs in urban (mean rank = 9.56) and inequality of urban and rural facilities and welfare and livelihood services (mean rank = 8.88).

Considering that a large part of the rural communities of Ardabil province are ranchers, the economy of the pastoralists in the region is more dependent on livestock. In general, according to the results of the current research, the lack of interest of the youth to continue farming and ranching, more economic opportunities and higher income in the city, and the inequality of city and village facilities were the most important economic factors affecting the migration of pastoralists to cities.