An Analysis of Effective Propelling Factors and Scenarios Compile in Adventure Tourism Development of the Marnjab Desert

Nowadays, adventure tourism is the fastest-growing tourism sector in the world and it is considered one of the most important tools for sustainable development in the host country. The Marnjab Desert in Iran, as an outstanding region, has the potential to be a stimulus model for sustainable development. Numerous factors affect the realization of this important issue.This article employs a futurology approach to investigate what factors lead to the development of adventure tourism. In doing so, it attempts to optimize adventure tourism in the process of sustainable development of the destination. This study attempts to increase the economic growth index and social welfare of the indigenous community while reducing environmental risks. In this research, the concepts and patterns were developed using two strategies: identifying propelling factors with the MICMAC software and writing scenarios using Scenario Wizard software. Twelve propelling factors were explained through compatible and strong scenarios for each variable in three different situations (continuity, deterioration, and growth). A strong scenario and three scenarios with high compatibility are more likely to occur. It is a significant continuation of the current trend in the medium term of the future. Results show that privatization in the field of tourism has the highest compatibility value among other possible situations.