Future analysis of the higher education social demand from a demographic perspective

Gaining accurate knowledge of the level and trend of the relative share of the population aged 17-27 years old in the last 15 years old (2006-2021) and predicting the future image of social demand for higher education in this age group until 1415 based on different scenarios.

To estimate the future demand for higher education, the participation rate was estimated with Dator's Four Generic Scenario Archetypes methods.

The results showed that the participation rate increased with a very gentle slope in the stability scenario. The increase in the demand for entrance exams in this scenario is more affected by the increase in the exposed population. In the fluctuation scenario, the assumptions of the decline scenario are less intense, leading to a decrease in the participation rate around 2030, but with proper policy-making and change in the employment situation and the industry's structure over time from 2031, the participation rate increases slightly.

The demand for higher education will vary from about one million people in the worst case to about 2.4 million people in ideal economic and social conditions for 2036.