Investigating the Effect of Climate Indices on the Number of Beehives in the Last Six Climatic Decades

Meteorological indexes are among the factors affecting the yield of various agricultural and livestock products. Given the leading climate change, examining the impact of meteorological limit indices on livestock production can now be an important challenge for producers. Therefore, the purpose of this meteorological analysis is on the trend of Iran's beekeeping industry in the years 1960 to 2018.

Spearman correlation coefficient was used to study the time series statistics of beehives in Iran and meteorological indices of temperature and precipitation. Standard meteorological indexes are obtained on the basis of daily information and statistics recorded at meteorological stations. R software and related packages were used to estimate the indexes. After quantitative and qualitative study of meteorological statistics, related time series were prepared. Finally, heat and humidity indices were compared with the population of bee colonies by standard methods.

The results showed that the number of bee colonies was affected by meteorological indexes so that the highest correlation coefficient between the number of bee colonies with warm nights (TN90p) was 0.84, (TN10p) cold nights and cold days (TX10p) was 81, respectively. 0-, hot days (TX90p) equal to 0.79, heat duration (WSDI) equal to 0.75, number of days with very heavy rain (R20mm) equal to 0.66, annual amount of rain on wet days (PRCPTOT) equal to 0.61 is significant at the level of 0.05. The results of Petite homogeneity test showed a jump point or sudden change in 1990 for the beehive population at a significance level of 0.05. This jump point occurred upwards. Also, the population trend of the incremental bee hive has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.98. An average of nearly 2 million hives increased statistically in the second half. The highest agreement (0.84) was with the increase in the number of hot nights during these 60 years. The meteorological index of hot nights (TN90p) has increased from 10 to 20 days and is equivalent to 100%.

Overall, the results showed that the number of bee colonies is affected by meteorological limit indices. Also, the results of various studies on the effect of Global Warming on insects, including bees, have shown that with small fluctuations in ambient temperature, there will be many changes in their behavior and life. In such a way that the rate of reproductive activity, pollination, diversity and distribution and susceptibility to pathogens and their pests are affected and in the long run, can lead to many changes in the bee population. Therefore, in order to strengthen, institutionalize, and support this sector, while recognizing the environmental tensions that are growing in the future, help beekeepers by raising their awareness.