Quantitative Risk Allocation of BOT Projects in Road Construction

Today, the method of Build, operation and Transfer of accepted and effective methods for investing in the construction of fast infrastructure projects required by countries. However, several risks may affect the Build, operation, and Transfer contracts.One of the most significant topics in study of BOT is process of its allocation to public and private sections. In this paper, by presenting the position of the risk-sharing process in the formation of Build, operation, and Transfer projects, a guidance framework is developed for how to allocate risk among the project's agents.Therefore, before starting a project and contracting, each of the project risks must be determined according to the appropriate criteria. Study continues by studying risk’s allocation in two quantitative and qualitative levels. Qualitative model uses Bayesian model to allocate risk for employer and contractor in 93.56% and 98.31% levels of significance. In order to identify the risks in the high way project of Tehran-Rasht, we first used 30 action questionnaires and then qualitative assigning and sharing the risk. In quantitative model, game theory used to allocate minimum of total cost while 35% of risk assigned to employer and 65% to contractor.