Monitoring urban growth and changes in land use and land cover: a strategy for sustainable urban development

Recently, Jos Metropolis, Nigeria is witnessing a strong trend toward urban growth and expansion. This phenomenon has impacted Land Use/Land Cover and efficient management of land. This paper evaluated urban growth and changes in Land Use /Land Cover and examined the land use efficiency of the metropolis. Land Use and Land Cover changes were established from 1999 to 2022; Land consumption rate and population growth rate were determined, and computation of the SDG 11.3.1 framework was done to examine the efficiency of land use. Data were collected through official documents, the use of remote sensing, and, geographic information systems. Satellite imageries used to determine the classes and changes in Land Use/Land Cover changes were Landsat 5 TM (1999), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2004, 2009, and 2014), and Landsat 8 ETM+ (2018 and 2022). Global positioning system was used for ground-truthing, IDRISI Taiga software was used for image classification, and ArcGIS was used for map visualization. Four classes of Land Use and Land Cover were identified: Built-up, Meadows, Mountain/Vegetation, and Water bodies. Results revealed that built-up area increased consistently from 3494.007 hectares in 1999 to 16995.360 ha in 2022 leading to a substantial reduction in other land use and land cover. The study confirmed a burgeoning population growth from 780,000 in 1999 to 1,563,193 in 2022. This growth had a significant impact on urban land use management, consuming a large proportion of land from 3494.007 hectares to 16995.36 hectares in 1999 and 2022 respectively. Results revealed a high land consumption rate of 0.0962 and 0.0884 during 2018-2022 and 1999-2004. A high population growth rate (0.0414) was recorded during 2018-2022. These dynamics intensified the rate of land acquisition for urban development. The average value of the SDG 11.3.1 framework was 2.3 which is higher than 1, indicating that urban expansion is moving away from land use efficiency. The paper recommended the establishment of a Growth Management Monitoring system by the state government for effective and efficient management of land resources through a spatial plan for the metropolis. This study has provided insight into the dynamics of Jos metropolitan LULC and land use efficiency management which could be useful to policymakers, urban planners, and researchers in initiating sustainable urban development strategies and inclusive structure for its planning and management.